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If It's Implausible, Should It Be True? The world may have changed in the last fifty years, but Antitrust did not change as much. See, for example, an article in the latest issue of “The Economist”. An article reports on how “the American way of trust- busting” is being imported to Britain. By the "American way" of trust- busting, the Economist means “a growing awareness that cartels not only raise prices, but also blunt other benefits of robust competition” plus an aim to “punish market riggers with fines and prison” By "imported to Britain", the Economist means a recent investigation of the Office of Fair Trading implying that “supermarket buyers used some of the world’s largest consumer-goods companies as a switchboard to swap information that would help them to coordinate the prices of thousands of products”. In another article, the very same Economist recognizes that “a fiercer business battle would be hard to find than that for the £110 billion ($220 billion) that Britons spend on groceries each year. Over the past decade shoppers have switched from one supermarket to another in their millions, crowning new kings of the trade and deposing its once undisputed lords, whose market shares have been as squishy as overripe tomatoes. The greatest winners have been shoppers themselves: they have more choice than ever, and real food prices in Britain fell by about 7% between 2000 and 2007”. The magazine also admits that “the British grocery market is one of the places you would least expect to find price-fixing. Large supermarkets have little reason to collude in the market as a whole”. Still, in its editorial the Economist comments that the OFT’s investigation suggests that “cartels are not just more prevalent, but also more sophisticated than anyone thought”. “The startling thing about the OFT’s investigation is that it is in branded goods, where coordinating a cartel should be hard”. This sounds to me like: if it is very very implausible, then it should be true. Pure Antitrust, à la Greenspan. I think some other thoughts may have occurred to the writers. If there is evidence of strong competition between British supermarkets, and yet the regulators believes there is also a very well established form of exchange of information in between those very supermarkets, can it mean that, well, perhaps that exchange of information is not a “conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices” resulting from a Smithian meeting of “people of the same trade”? See Pascal Salin’s fascinating essay on cartels as coordinating devices. During the last thirty years, economists basically argued that almost
anything the trust busters assumed about vertical integration and mergers
was, basically, wrong. Perhaps it is time to revisit our common wisdom
on cartels too? Sarkozy and the Dilemma of the European Right However, Sarkozy is not the exception which makes the rule in European politics. The sad truth is that non-socialist parties will return to power in several places: in England, it looks like Gordon Brown will not succeed in keeping the Tories out of Downing Street any more. In Spain, Jose' Luis Zapatero is building consensus for his opponents. In Italy, after the record of the Prodi's government, the latest elections have gone to Berlusconi again. However perhaps with the exception of the Spaniards this
new wave of right wingers seem well intentioned to stay way from "Thatcherite"
market oriented policies. The gospel of lower taxes, free trade, and competition
is seldom preached in European politics. This brings us back to the very
mission of organizations such as CNE. We are strangers in stranger land.
We face the immense work of changing, little by little, the public opinion
in Europe, towards a more sensible approach towards reforms that are very
much need, just for the sake of keeping Europe alive. The European right
is not quite ready for that. Sarkozy and his likes seem more attracted
either by the micro-managing of daily politics, or by the grandeur of
some newer kind of protectionism. The conservatives often end up being
the party of the state. This is not what Europe needs. We will need conservatives
that are open to the culture of markets and competition, that understand
the value of entrepreneurship and liberty. France will never have a Margaret
Thatcher, and even the best free market think tank ever will not be able
to manufacture one. But it rests with institutions like CNE and intellectuals
such as Jacob Arfwedson, to spread our ideas in a way that will make,
day after day, the Sarkozies of this world less radical, in defending
the status quo. Is Italy Moving Toward a New Protectionism? If he favors more regulation in international trade, he also seeks less
regulation coming out of Europe. Tremonti's vision is not different from
Sarkozy's. They accept liberalization "internally" but not "internationally".
The problem is that globalization is the main drive towards liberalizations
within the boundaries of nation states. If we didn't have competitive
pressure coming from "barbarians at the gate", why bother changing rules
and rolling back the state? It is no big consolation, though, that free
trade is having tough times also on
the other side of the Atlantic. Cowboy Socialism "While socialism is retreating in nations like China and former Soviet satellite states, it is gaining in the bureaucratic heart of Western Europe. Among those leading this socialist charge is EU antitrust chief Neelie Kroes".In his article, professor Cass underlines rightly the two souls of competition law: the noble aim to disentangle businesses from strict regulation, by opening markets that were closed to competition by unfair regulation and monopolization by state-owned businesses. But, also, the "socialist resurgence" against companies operating in markets that instead can be considered free, and where a business ends up in a dominant position because of its superior ability in serving the consumers. For philosopher Robert Nozick, the fundamental rule of justice in a market society is: "from each as he chooses, to each as he is chosen". The first part of the sentence is very important: if we want to stretch it to competition law, it may sound as a plea to opening up markets. Having free entry to markets make possible for individuals to enjoy wider choice. But the second part of the sentence is also fundamental: as the holdings of an individuals have to be considered legitimate insofar as he has acquired them lawfully, so the market share of a firm has not to be charged with antitrust law insofar as that company gained that level of "dominance" in a free market - i.e. being "chosen" by consumers. Indeed, there is a role for Antitrust in economies where the state is
still so strong, as it is in Europe. But it is not the role of the destroyer
of successful, fully private, and truly enterprising businesses. A Great Little Book on Antitrust One reviewer has attacked Rockefeller's "Pollyannish view of an unregulated free market". But criticisms do not go much beyond that. Even if they were true, if Rockefeller and those of his persuasion were actually blind to the evils of unrestricted competition, this would not make the vision of Antitrust zealots any less Pollyannish. Rockefeller's is a book as slim as it is powerful. He points out the many reasons why, dealing with Antitrust, we're not "in the rule of law but in roulette". As religion was once understood to be the opium of people, we may now say that antitrust is the opium of (self- interested) economists and lawyers. I say "self-interested" because Antitrust is after all a very good employment program, bringing bread to the table of many practitioners in economics and law. What brings Rockefeller to call Antitrust a religion is the vagueness of its tenant propositions. Take market power "the imagined power that a seller may have if an assumed future, in which all other things remain unchanged and which cannot be verified, were to occur". To have market power, you have at first to define the relevant market. How? No matter ho careful analyses are but the definition is arbitrary - and often looks so. Writes Rockefeller: "Determinations of the market and market power are made through a self-hypnotic process of circular reasoning". Not that the author does not take into account the evolution experienced by Antitrust, mostly under the pressure of the law and economics movement. But he notes that, no matter how reasonable the writings of Posner and Bork (to name just two) look, little was done to reduce legal uncertainty in Antitrust law. Actually, since law has to be certain, we could say "there is no such thing as antitrust law. Antitrust is a religion. Antitrust enforcement is arbitrary, political regulation of commercial activity, not enforcement of a coherent set of rules adopted by Congress". Trust me, the confessions of Mr Rockefeller are well worth reading. No More Ads? The second part of the proposition is far less fair: tv is one among
many media, and with declining audience (as compared to the Internet,
or Internet and new television channels on cell phones, etc). So, why
should New Media be taxed to pay for Old Media's bills? Internet consumers
certainly do not find much benefit in this. Sarkozy's statement underlies
the distance between old and new media. The new media are basically financed
just by ads. News is provided on the Internet free of charge, with advertising
campaigns paying for the content. Since targeting campaigns is actually
more efficient on the internet (think Google Ads), thanks to new ways
to profile the customers, the trend may well be of declining volumes in
ads for television. Sarkozy is perhaps just anticipating the future -
but why should Internet and mobile phone companies pay for the decline
of television? Alitalia: Where is Italy Flying? The problem with Air One is not that, if it buys Alitalia, a neverending
antitrust dispute would be opened immediately (the Italian antitrust authority
would have the precedent of the Aer
Lingus/ Ryan Air case to refer to here). The real problem is that
Air One is too small a company to eat Alitalia, and the bid would be largely
financed by banks who possess the right keys to create pressure on Italian
politicians. The problem is, once more, political. An inefficient Alitalia
was a pain in the neck for the Italian taxpayers, but contributed to making
the Italian market permeable by low cost carriers, which enhanced the
supply for Italian customers (see ppt slideshow here).
Now, with such a belated privatization, the buyer may bargain with the
government regulation à la carte to stop the stream of low cost competition.
This is why Italians should keep their eyes open. Antitrust Against Producers What nobody could forecast, was that antitrust was to go "back to the future". Opera has just filed a complaint to the EU Commission, asking the EU to apply the same standards applied to the bundle of Media Player into Windows, to the bundle of Internet Explorer into Redmond's OS. Which is exactly the old case brought by Judge Thomas Penfield Jackson, even though at that time it was Netscape working against Bill Gates and his fellows. How that ended up is well known - but I think anyone could benefit from re-reading this excellent article by Clyde Wayne Crews Jr. (pdf here), written at the time. I just want to add a note. The peculiar thing with antitrust today is
that it is becoming clear how regulators want to be the one dictating
to producers what a product is. It was the case with Acer, which was required
to unbundle Windows from their laptops in France. It is continuously
the case with Microsoft, required to cut pieces of what evolved to be
their operating system. This is more than policing competition: this is
going back to old fashioned industrial policy, ie dictating people what
they should produce and, by doing so, dictating consumers what they should
buy. Two Cheers for Mandelson Mandelson was also courageous in making this point during the American primaries (he was then speaking at the Carnegie Endowment). In the current race, unfortunately, Republicans and Democrats are contesting each other over "Chinese and Indians stealing our manufacturing jobs"! Second, the Commissioner made a singular point that brought the Wall Street Journal to speak of "the Mandelson curve" - i.e., the Laffer curve applied to tariffs. Writes the WSJ: "Arthur Laffer couldn't have said it better himself. When you tax something you tend to get less of it, and a tariff is just a tax on imports. Lower tariffs, and you'll probably get more imports -- and taking a smaller portion of a bigger pie often is better than taking a larger hunk of a tinier pie".Mandelson is quoted to be said that there is evidence "that when tariffs come down, tariff revenue tends to go up". Now, this is hardly the true classical liberal argument for opening the markets. Economists would emphasize comparative advantages, libertarians would appeal to the freedom of buying and selling whatever you please. Still, the Mandelson curve may sound appealing to a political audience. And if it could convince some eurocrats that lowering tariffs is a good policy, Mandelson would deserve our thanks. feedback permalink AMD Goes to Brussels Intel is accused of having abused its dominant position, with the aim of excluding its main rival, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), from the CPU market. Intel is considered having engaged in "predatory pricing", by selling its CPUs below cost or by allowing substantial rebates as to keep its market share. The case was brought to the EU’s attention by AMD, which is also pursuing antitrust charges against Intel in other countries: in the US, the federal district court of Delaware is expected to rule in 2009. In Europe, AMD may expect a more favourable judgment. Both because the case bears some resemblance to the one in which the Commission opposes Microsoft, and because AMD owns an important factory in Dresden, which employs quite a few Germans, making it a heavier political player, in Europe, than Intel. I find the history of the development of the CPU market a truly fascinating one (see, for example, this interesting timetable). It is a story of intense competition, which is now evolving sadly into "competition by litigation". Intel should find not a sympathetic ear, but a fair one in Brussels. The business practices it is accused to have put in place are fully legitimate: at any rate, the producer owns what it is making and it is free to sell it at whatever price it wants. In addition to that, predatory pricing has lived more in the regulators' nightmares than in real world markets, and anyway it wouldn't be effective to close down competition, if only (a) there are no legal barriers, and (b) there is actually room for a second supplier. AMD is a great company that developed from being one of the many "me-too"
competitors of Intel into being a powerhouse in itself. It is so sad that,
after proving so good at markets, it now likes the courts better. France to tax foreign lorries Not only. Taxing transportation is ultimately like taxing consumers,
who will have to bear higher costs for the foreign goods' import. And
thus, this is, in turn, like subsidizing their "internal", "made in France"
substitutes, that will benefit from competitors' higher prices. A very
French idea indeed. The Post office and the Free Market Massimiliano Trovato and Rosamaria Bitetti (two promising young libertarian policy analysts) have just written a powerful Briefing Paper for Istituto Bruno Leoni. The paper is in Italian, but the message of Trovato and Bitetti is powerful and important all across Europe: the fullest liberalization of the sector, in Italy, has been slowed down by the incumbent, Poste Italiane, which happens to be state owned. The way in which Italy reacted to Brussels' directives is well worth studying. Instead of opening up the market, the political class has done whatever it could to fortify the "national champion" - a business that no one dared to privatize. A more general and pan-European look at this issue is provided by the
Institut Economique Molinari, with a remarkable
article by Valentin Petkantchin. Petkantchin underlines several important
considerations. Number one is the changing nature of the postal business.
Even love letters tend to be love e-mails, nowadays (do you remember the
delightful "You've
Got Mail" with Meg Ryan and Tom Hanks?). Thus the nature of the post
is changing, and what is delivered by snail mail tends to be, basically,
goods. In this sense, one may argue that eBay is the best ally of the
post service: buy virtual, mail physical, so to speak. Also, Petkantchin
argues that, in such a context, the old justifications for universal service
simply do not hold any longer. Price differentiation is in the nature
of things, and there are an awful lot of different businesses (supermarkets,
food chains, etc) that may prove to be a good substitute for universal
mail service. "Mailboxes Etc" is already somehow doing that. Could you
picture yourself buying a book on Amazon.com and picking it up at a Starbucks?
I bet the market's imagination can bring us well beyond these limits. It's the Market, Baby Who is going to win? It will depend on a variety of factors, including
the fate of La Salle, in the US, which ABN is planning to sell to Bank
of America (La Salle Bank is instead part of the reason why RBS is interested
in the Dutch bank). Anyway, something can be said about one of the arguments
used against RBS's offer; it is supposed to be damaging because it would
lead to the break up of ABN, whose different divisions will finish under
the umbrella of one or the other of the banks involved in the consortium.
This is an argument somehow appealing, but shows that sometimes the mythology
of enterprises may conspire against the freedom of business. There is
no reason to believe that businesses should stay as they are now for ever.
Enterprises are indeed "nexuses of contracts", and as such may be broken
and re-arranged differently. There is a tendency to favor the survival
of a firm in its current form as a value. Alas, the important things are
others: consumers and shareholders. A successful business provides consumers
with something they value, therefore creating value for its investors.
Even the future of business is not fixed or decided, but will depend on
the market. Investors may find a smarter way of using a firm's assets
than keeping it together how it is. Opposing change qua change is not
a smart strategy. The Taste of Competition In his last book, Richard Epstein uses a very apt example. He mentions, as a highly competitive market, the market for wines. I thought this to be absolutely brilliant. Wine producers are all producing and selling a very similar product. After all, wine is always liquid, always sold in bottles, available in a limited number of colors (white, red, rosé). It looks like a competitive market, neoclassical style: many producers, very similar goods. However, prices are far from being similar: you go from a few bucks for a bottle to the stellar prices of SuperTuscans, very expensive Bordeaux, legendary masterpieces such as Mondavi's Opus One. Why such a big difference in pricing? Because any and each of the producers is in fact the monopolist of a unique product: its "own" wine. Producers pursue the highest degree of product differentiation, strive for innovation, sometime go for the best quality for the price, sometime go for excellence at very important price. Isn't the wine market highly competitive? It is: no barrier to entry. The number of labels is quasi-infinite, perhaps a bit of consolidation would be needed indeed (but, of course, there is little incentive insofar that smaller producers are subsidized in some countries), but prices are far from being similar and he who comes about with a great idea, a great new product, retains the right to charge how much he wants, if he finds consumer willing to spend such an amount of money. Also, the market has benefited from quite a few guides, rankings, magazines (first and foremost Wine Spectator) that provides consumers with informed opinions, and help them in exercising their freedom to choose and drink whatever they like best. I bet many antitrust regulators could use a glass of Barolo. I wish they
could think of the wine market as a good example of how competition should
look, and learn some lessons out of this fact. Try "market definition"
with wines, and you'll understand what's wrong with most antitrust regulations. Some Sense from McCreevy Statism has new clothes, and one of this is the preference for "industry"
(i.e., traditional farms, located in a particular town and village, unable
to move around at the same speed capital enjoys in jumping from, say,
Italy to Slovakia) over "finance" (i.e., dreadful rich people playing
with their money all over the world). But, as McCreevy said, finance cannot
be accused of not being fruitful. When buying companies, private equity
firms push on better management, making it possible to add value to their
original investment and sell to the market at higher prices. The "evil
speculation" is nothing but seeing opportunities others did not see.
The rationalization and restructuring of European business, which is so
much needed, can't happen by itself. We need well equipped and clever
financiers to push our economy further. We need to improve, and to have
the right stimulus too. Of course, politicians prefer "farms" to "capital"
for at least two reasons: a) Farms are easier to understand (you look
at the work force and you are looking at voters), and b) far more importantly,
farms are easier to control, and "industry" can become the subject of
"industrial policy". But in a world of free movement of capital and labour,
the era of industrial policy is really over. Epstein's Overdose Government Doesn't Like Low Costs The essence of Ryanair's business model is to keep costs, well, low, and to focus on its core business - flying people around - rather than engaging into the fancies traditional airlines endlessly get into. Low costs worked: In the real world of supply and demand, they indeed worked so well as to put competitive pressure on traditional airlines, which often benefited from the increased competition as it pushed them to rein in expenses and get bolder in attracting customers. But while consumers like low costs, governments do not. The Italian government is trying to privatize Alitalia, a carrier ever on the brink of bankruptcy, and to "put lipstick on the pig" for potential buyers, it is proposing new airports legislation (story here in Italian) that would make it more difficult for low cost carriers to cut deals with regional airports. The French government, meanwhile, is being challenged in court by Ryan
Air CEO Michael O'Leary for trying to clip his company's wings. O'Leary
contends that the French are forcing foreign airlines to apply French
labor laws when they base aircraft in France, and by doing so they are
breaking the European laws on free movement of labor and services. O'Leary
is a clever and courageous businessman, one who isn't afraid to stand
up for his company and its values. However, the truly sad thing is that
European governments do not get what Ryanair represents. Cheaper prices
for consumers, okay. But also a fabulous opportunity for a country. Ryan
Air embodies the essence of the "Irish miracle". Lower taxes, lower regulation,
and look what happens. You become a business tiger, after ages of economic
backwardness. But instead of learning the lesson, Italy and France prefer
to endure in the defense of smaller interest groups. And we lose twice:
first as consumers, then as citizens.
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